that is the bulk of the fiscal cliff anyway and it is also the bulk of the impediment to the economy. so if you were thinking where is this going to lead us, what happens if we go off the cliff, i would estimate that in the short run it would probably cost us up to about a point of gdp which is about a half million jobs. in the long run it could cost about a half percentage point of growth every year. so, you know, this is the kind of thing that is really quite serious in terms of its impact on standard of living over the long haul. and we really need to get this right. it is not the kind of thing we can do in the next couple days i'm afraid. >> half a million jobs, whether half or a whole million jobs, that is a significant number. a big hit to the labor market. are you saying recession or not? >> well, you know, again, it depends on what the baseline is. i'm not sure we'd actually call it a recession, but just losing a percentage point of growth is significant whether it puts us in through recession or not. if we go -- remember our growth rate has only been about 2%. if we cut our g